NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/30)

NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games. 

I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.

Let’s get to it. 

Collin Sexton Over 11.5 Points

(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This same play was featured last time I wrote this article, and I am going back to the well for the third straight Utah game, taking the over on Collin Sexton’s over on his points prop. He failed to hit the over last game, as he scored 11 points when we need 12, but he played just 16 minutes and in his last 10 games he has gone over this number in nine of those, and he is averaging 16.7 PPG in that time. 

I also like his over on 2.5 assists as well as his over on 13.5 Points + Assists. 

Nikola Jokic Over 32.5 Points + Assists

(-105, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Nikola Jokic has scored at least 40 points alone in two of his last three games, and while this might not be as easy of a matchup, my model still projects Jokic for north of 26 points and right around 10 assists. Jokic has gone over this number in eight of his last 10, and he has gone over 40 points and assists in seven of those games. 

Chris Paul Over 17.5 Points + Rebounds

(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Chris Paul has gone over this number in six of his last nine while averaging 19.4 P+R in his last 10 games. He gets a nice usage bump with Devin Booker sidelined, as he sees that rate go up over 22% with Booker off the floor. Even in a difficult matchup, my model has CP3 for 17 points alone, adding four rebounds.