Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Commanders vs. Browns
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-118/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 22.5 (-118) after it opened @ 20.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.16 seconds per play.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to garner 5.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
- Logan Thomas has accrued a monstrous 30.0 air yards per game this year: 83rd percentile among TEs.
- The Cleveland Browns pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.02 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
- Logan Thomas has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (66.0% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (82.5%).
- The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- Logan Thomas’s possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 72.2% to 62.6%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards
33
Receiving Yards
