Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Khalil HerbertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Bears vs. Falcons
Right now, Khalil Herbert’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 24.5 (-114).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- In this contest, Khalil Herbert is forecasted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 86th percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.7 carries.
- In regards to blocking for rushers (and the importance it has on all ground game metrics), the offensive line of the Bears grades out as the 9th-best in football last year.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Bears offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 28.39 seconds per play.
- Khalil Herbert’s 43.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season marks a substantial reduction in his running proficiency over last season’s 53.0 mark.
- Khalil Herbert’s 4.2 adjusted yards per carry this season represents a noteable regression in his running talent over last season’s 5.4 rate.
- The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles project as the 3rd-best collection of DTs in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards
71
Rushing Yards
