Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Noah Fant from EV Insight

Noah FantReceiving Yards

Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 18.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 18.5 (-110) after it opened @ 17.5 (-110).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.7% pass rate.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may slide.
Noah Fant’s pass-game effectiveness has improved this season, notching 8.87 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 7.62 mark last season.
With an excellent 5.85 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (78th percentile) this year, Noah Fant places among the top pass-game tight ends in football in the open field.
The Steelers pass defense has not been good when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.28 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in the league.

Cons

A running game script is indicated by the Seahawks being a 4.5-point favorite in this game.
The projections expect the Seahawks to run the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Seahawks have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
After totaling 25.0 air yards per game last season, Noah Fant has gotten worse this season, now pacing 18.0 per game.

Projection

THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards