NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Seahawks vs. Steelers
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 18.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 18.5 (-110) after it opened @ 17.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.7% pass rate.
- The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may slide.
- Noah Fant’s pass-game effectiveness has improved this season, notching 8.87 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 7.62 mark last season.
- With an excellent 5.85 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (78th percentile) this year, Noah Fant places among the top pass-game tight ends in football in the open field.
- The Steelers pass defense has not been good when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.28 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in the league.
Cons
- A running game script is indicated by the Seahawks being a 4.5-point favorite in this game.
- The projections expect the Seahawks to run the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Seahawks have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.5 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
- After totaling 25.0 air yards per game last season, Noah Fant has gotten worse this season, now pacing 18.0 per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards
19
Receiving Yards
