Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tucker Kraft from EV Insight

Tucker KraftReceiving Yards

Right now, Tucker Kraft’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 38.5 (-120) after it opened @ 40.5 (-120).

Pros

The model projects the Packers as the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
The leading projections forecast Tucker Kraft to earn 6.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to TEs.
Tucker Kraft grades out as one of the leading tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a remarkable 36.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 79th percentile.

Cons

Right now, the 7th-most sluggish paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Packers.
The Vikings defense has allowed the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 43.0) vs. tight ends this year.
This year, the formidable Vikings defense has given up the 5th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a measly 6.7 yards.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Minnesota’s unit has been great this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards