Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Justice HillRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Ravens vs. Dolphins
Right now, Justice Hill’s rushing yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-137/+106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (-137) after it opened @ 29.5 (-114).
Pros
- A rushing game script is indicated by the Ravens being a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 8th-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 45.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Ravens are projected by the predictive model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
- The model projects Justice Hill to be a much bigger part of his offense’s rushing attack in this contest (28.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.8% in games he has played).
- Justice Hill’s running efficiency (4.53 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (82nd percentile when it comes to running backs).
Cons
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 6th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 92.0 per game) versus the Dolphins defense this year.
- As it relates to the safeties’ role in defending against the run, Miami’s unit has been tremendous this year, grading out as the 4th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Rushing Yards
34
Rushing Yards
