TNF Plays: Best Props for Thursday Night Football, Week 17

Week 17 brings us an AFC matchup between two elite defenses. The Browns (10-5) have won three straight games and hold a one-game lead over Buffalo for the first Wild Card playoff spot. The Jets (6-9) have been eliminated from the playoffs but have won two of their last three games to stay competitive.

Each week, I will select my favorite prop bets for Thursday night. You can find all our Week 17 player projections here at FTNBets. All of the available betting lines for this week’s opening matchup are available on our FTNBets Prop Shop, where you can easily shop around for the sportsbook with the best odds on each player or team.

Let’s take a look at my favorite prop for this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup.

Week 17 Player Prop

Amari Cooper Under 58.5 Receiving Yards

(-115, Caesars)

I always like to fade the big performance, but this matchup with the Jets is the perfect spot to fade Cleveland’s star receiver.

Per FTN’s Positional DVOA, the Jets rank sixth-best at limiting opposing WR1s, allowing just 59.5 yards per game to the position. In fact, wide receivers as a group have only averaged a total of 121.5 receiving yards per game against the Browns. Cooper is now listed as questionable with a heel injury, making his possibly even more limited in a short turnaround from Sunday’s big win.

Despite last week’s incredible outburst against Houston, Cooper has been notoriously better at home than road contests. Per FTN Fantasy’s Splits Tool, Cooper is averaging only 58.2 receiving yards per game in 73 career road matchups, compared to 77.2 yards at home.

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While Cooper has been great at home against this year, he has thrived against inferior opponents. Cooper posted massive receiving yards at home against Tennessee (116 yards), Arizona (139 yards), and Chicago (109 yards). However, he struggled at home against good defensive teams such as Pittsburgh (34 yards), Baltimore (16 yards), and even Cincinnati (37 yards) in Week 1. This is one of the strongest defenses Cooper will face on home this year, giving even more support for an under play.

We are getting an inflated line that is affected by Week 16, against a strong defense, now having a questionable designation, with a backup quarterback in Joe Flacco ready for some negative regression. I’ll grab the under on Cooper’s receiving prop in a short week.