Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Bailey ZappePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Bills vs. Patriots
Right now, Bailey Zappe’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 200.5 (-120) after it opened @ 205.5 (-110).
Pros
- At a -14.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are massive underdogs this week, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their standard game plan.
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Patriots to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 10th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
- At a mere 27.03 seconds per snap, the New England Patriots offense rates as the 9th-quickest paced in the league (in a neutral context) this year.
- This year, the deficient Bills defense has surrendered a monstrous 74.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-largest rate in the NFL.
Cons
- In logging a puny 20.3 pass attempts per game this year, Bailey Zappe slots in among the bottom QBs in football (14th percentile) by this measure.
- The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Bailey Zappe is positioned as one of the bottom QBs in the league this year, averaging 126.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 14th percentile.
- Bailey Zappe’s 65.0% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a remarkable reduction in his passing accuracy over last year’s 70.0% mark.
- Bailey Zappe’s 6.45 adjusted yards-per-target this season shows a remarkable drop-off in his throwing effectiveness over last season’s 8.2% mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
207
Passing Yards
207
Passing Yards
