Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jerome FordRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Browns vs. Jets
Right now, Jerome Ford’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+102/-134).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (+102) after it opened @ 45.5 (-114).
Pros
- An extreme running game script is indicated by the Browns being a massive 7-point favorite in this game.
- The model projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The Browns have run the most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 65.9 plays per game.
- The projections expect Jerome Ford to notch 14.4 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
- The model projects Jerome Ford to be a more important option in his offense’s running game in this game (51.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (40.5% in games he has played).
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 6th-least run-focused team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 35.9% run rate.
- Jerome Ford’s running efficiency (3.58 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (21st percentile when it comes to running backs).
- The New York Jets defense has produced the 8th-best efficiency against opposing ground games this year, surrendering just 4.04 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards
61
Rushing Yards
