NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
James CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Bills vs. Patriots
Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 63.5 (-110) after it opened @ 65.5 (-114).
Pros
- This game’s line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are overwhelmingly favored by 14.5 points.
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to run on 48.9% of their plays: the 6th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
- In this week’s game, James Cook is expected by the projections to find himself in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs with 17.7 carries.
- James Cook has been much more involved in his offense’s running game this season (50.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (19.1%).
- James Cook’s 67.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year signifies a remarkable improvement in his running skills over last year’s 32.0 rate.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast this game to chug along at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.62 seconds per play accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL last year in run support.
- James Cook’s ground efficiency has tailed off this year, totaling a measly 4.86 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 5.79 figure last year.
- The Patriots defense boasts the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing just 3.53 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
- The New England Patriots safeties profile as the best group of safeties in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
83
Rushing Yards
83
Rushing Yards
