Week 17 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

NFL Bets

December 26, 2023

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We finally got the Steelers across the line for a moneyline underdog play, rolling to a comfortable +115 moneyline win at home against Cincinnati. Let’s take a look at our favorite Week 17 play.

Again, these are high-risk plays for a reason. They will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished.

Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the upcoming schedule of games.

Let’s take a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for Week 17 of the 2023 season!

Week 17 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Detroit +6.5 at Dallas

Lions ML (+230, PointsBet)

Here come the Lions.

After a 30-year drought without winning the NFC North, Detroit travels to Dallas on Saturday night in a spot most of the public believes is a bounce-back spot for the Cowboys.

To quote Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friends.”

Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy has been anything but reliable in these spots. When facing teams with an above-.500 winning percentage as a home favorite of six points or more, McCarthy’s Cowboys are just 2-5 ATS, with three outright losses.

Dallas and Detroit are ranked side-by-side in team DVOA, providing an even bigger advantage to the visiting Lions. This game is also critical for the No. 2 overall seed in the NFC playoff race, and the Lions currently have secured that spot with two games remaining. If the Lions win out, they would hold the advantage over Dallas and would beat Philadelphia on tie-breaking procedures. Earning the home-field advantage for the divisional round of the playoffs would give Detroit a legitimate chance to make the NFC Championship game, something they haven’t done since 1991.

Detroit head coach Dan Campbell is 16-9 (64%) ATS as a road underdog with seven outright wins in his last nine chances. I’m backing the Lions in this critical Week 17 matchup at Dallas, with the overwhelming amount of tickets backing the Cowboys at home.