Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jahmyr Gibbs from EV Insight

Jahmyr GibbsRushing Yards

Right now, Jahmyr Gibbs’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-120).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projection model to run 65.9 total plays in this contest: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Lions have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 61.0 plays per game.
Jahmyr Gibbs has been given 41.2% of his team’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 77th percentile when it comes to RBs.
The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league last year at executing run-blocking assingments.
With an outstanding tally of 68.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (95th percentile), Jahmyr Gibbs stands as one of the leading running backs in football this year.

Cons

A throwing game script is implied by the Lions being a -4.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Lions to run on 38.4% of their plays: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
When it comes to the defensive ends’ role in defending against the run, Dallas’s collection of DEs has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards