Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Gus EdwardsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Ravens vs. Dolphins
Right now, Gus Edwards’s rushing yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-114/-114).
Pros
- A rushing game script is indicated by the Ravens being a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 7th-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 46.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Ravens are projected by the predictive model to call 66.2 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.
- The leading projections forecast Gus Edwards to total 12.2 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on balance, placing him in the 77th percentile among running backs.
- Gus Edwards has grinded out 50.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in the NFL when it comes to RBs (77th percentile).
Cons
- Gus Edwards has been a much bigger part of his team’s offense this year, staying on the field for 41.5% of snaps vs just 26.4% last year.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 6th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 92.0 per game) versus the Dolphins defense this year.
- As it relates to the safeties’ role in defending against the run, Miami’s unit has been tremendous this year, grading out as the 4th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards
53
Rushing Yards
