Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for David Montgomery from EV Insight

David MontgomeryRushing Yards

Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-115/-115).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projection model to run 65.6 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
In this week’s contest, David Montgomery is anticipated by the projection model to rank in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 12.7 carries.
David Montgomery has been a much bigger part of his team’s running game this season (57.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (39.4%).
David Montgomery’s 79.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year reflects a significant growth in his rushing skills over last year’s 48.0 mark.
David Montgomery’s 4.9 adjusted yards per carry this season indicates a material gain in his rushing prowess over last season’s 3.8 mark.

Cons

A throwing game script is implied by the Lions being a -6-point underdog in this week’s game.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Lions to run on 37.9% of their plays: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
When it comes to the defensive ends’ role in defending against the run, Dallas’s collection of DEs has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards