NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
David MontgomeryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Cowboys vs. Lions
Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projection model to run 65.6 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
- In this week’s contest, David Montgomery is anticipated by the projection model to rank in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 12.7 carries.
- David Montgomery has been a much bigger part of his team’s running game this season (57.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (39.4%).
- David Montgomery’s 79.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year reflects a significant growth in his rushing skills over last year’s 48.0 mark.
- David Montgomery’s 4.9 adjusted yards per carry this season indicates a material gain in his rushing prowess over last season’s 3.8 mark.
Cons
- A throwing game script is implied by the Lions being a -6-point underdog in this week’s game.
- Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Lions to run on 37.9% of their plays: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
- When it comes to the defensive ends’ role in defending against the run, Dallas’s collection of DEs has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards
56
Rushing Yards
