Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Zay Flowers from EV Insight

Zay FlowersReceiving Yards

Right now, Zay Flowers’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+100/-137).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-137) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Ravens are projected by the predictive model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
Zay Flowers has run a route on 93.6% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs.
In this week’s game, Zay Flowers is forecasted by the predictive model to rank in the 89th percentile among WRs with 8.3 targets.
Zay Flowers ranks as one of the most reliable receivers in the league, completing a stellar 74.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
This year, the feeble Miami Dolphins pass defense has conceded a staggering 70.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 4th-biggest rate in the league.

Cons

A rushing game script is indicated by the Ravens being a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest.
The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the 8th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.32 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards