Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Elijah Moore from EV Insight

Elijah MooreReceiving Yards

Right now, Elijah Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 30.5 (-110).

Pros

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-oriented team in the league (64.1% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Browns.
The model projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Browns have run the most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 65.9 plays per game.
In this contest, Elijah Moore is predicted by the projection model to rank in the 89th percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.2 targets.
After accruing 46.0 air yards per game last year, Elijah Moore has produced significantly more this year, now sitting at 71.0 per game.

Cons

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Browns being a massive 7-point favorite in this game.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Jets, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (just 32.7 per game) this year.
Elijah Moore’s ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 65.3% to 59.3%.
Elijah Moore’s receiving effectiveness has worsened this season, accumulating a measly 6.61 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 7.75 rate last season.
This year, the fierce New York Jets defense has allowed a paltry 97.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing WRs: the best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards