NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Elijah MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Browns vs. Jets
Right now, Elijah Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 30.5 (-110).
Pros
- At the present time, the 6th-most pass-oriented team in the league (64.1% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Browns.
- The model projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The Browns have run the most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 65.9 plays per game.
- In this contest, Elijah Moore is predicted by the projection model to rank in the 89th percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.2 targets.
- After accruing 46.0 air yards per game last year, Elijah Moore has produced significantly more this year, now sitting at 71.0 per game.
Cons
- An extreme running game script is indicated by the Browns being a massive 7-point favorite in this game.
- Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Jets, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (just 32.7 per game) this year.
- Elijah Moore’s ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 65.3% to 59.3%.
- Elijah Moore’s receiving effectiveness has worsened this season, accumulating a measly 6.61 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 7.75 rate last season.
- This year, the fierce New York Jets defense has allowed a paltry 97.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing WRs: the best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards
45
Receiving Yards
