NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Bills vs. Patriots
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 32.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-110).
Pros
- At a -14-point disadvantage, the Patriots are massive underdogs this week, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their standard game plan.
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Patriots to pass on 62.6% of their plays: the 5th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
- At a mere 27.03 seconds per snap, the New England Patriots offense rates as the 9th-quickest paced in the league (in a neutral context) this year.
- The leading projections forecast Hunter Henry to garner 5.2 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile when it comes to TEs.
- This year, the deficient Bills pass defense has allowed a whopping 77.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 6th-biggest rate in the league.
Cons
- The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Hunter Henry’s 68.6% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a meaningful decline in his pass-catching talent over last season’s 72.5% figure.
- Hunter Henry’s 7.1 adjusted yards per target this season signifies a noteable decline in his pass-catching ability over last season’s 8.5 figure.
- Hunter Henry’s skills in grinding out extra yardage have worsened this year, averaging a measly 2.33 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.85 mark last year.
- This year, the stout Buffalo Bills pass defense has conceded the 10th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing tight ends: a puny 4.2 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards
33
Receiving Yards
