Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hunter Henry from EV Insight

Hunter HenryReceiving Yards

Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 32.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-110).

Pros

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Patriots are massive underdogs this week, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their standard game plan.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Patriots to pass on 62.6% of their plays: the 5th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
At a mere 27.03 seconds per snap, the New England Patriots offense rates as the 9th-quickest paced in the league (in a neutral context) this year.
The leading projections forecast Hunter Henry to garner 5.2 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile when it comes to TEs.
This year, the deficient Bills pass defense has allowed a whopping 77.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 6th-biggest rate in the league.

Cons

The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Hunter Henry’s 68.6% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a meaningful decline in his pass-catching talent over last season’s 72.5% figure.
Hunter Henry’s 7.1 adjusted yards per target this season signifies a noteable decline in his pass-catching ability over last season’s 8.5 figure.
Hunter Henry’s skills in grinding out extra yardage have worsened this year, averaging a measly 2.33 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.85 mark last year.
This year, the stout Buffalo Bills pass defense has conceded the 10th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing tight ends: a puny 4.2 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards