Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tee Higgins from EV Insight

Tee HigginsReceiving Yards

Right now, Tee Higgins’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Bengals will be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
At a -7-point disadvantage, the Bengals are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
In this week’s game, Tee Higgins is expected by the model to rank in the 92nd percentile among wideouts with 8.7 targets.
Tee Higgins has totaled significantly more air yards this year (87.0 per game) than he did last year (71.0 per game).

Cons

Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 32.3 per game) this year.
The Bengals offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Tee Higgins has totaled many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (60.0) this season than he did last season (74.0).
Tee Higgins’s sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 71.6% to 58.4%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards