NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Austin HooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Colts vs. Raiders
Right now, Austin Hooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 20.5 (-120) after it opened @ 17.5 (-115).
Pros
- At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Raiders are underdogs this week, implying more of a reliance on passing than their typical approach.
- The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.
- Austin Hooper checks in as one of the best possession receivers in the league among TEs, catching an excellent 77.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 76th percentile.
- Austin Hooper’s 5.89 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season shows a meaningful growth in his effectiveness in space over last season’s 3.5% figure.
Cons
- Right now, the 7th-least pass-heavy team in football (57.3% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Las Vegas Raiders.
- With regard to a defense’s influence on pace, at 28.57 seconds per snap, our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders as the 4th-slowest in the league (context-neutralized) right now.
- Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 32.7 per game) this year.
- Austin Hooper’s 38.8% Route% this season conveys an impressive decrease in his passing offense usage over last season’s 60.1% mark.
- Austin Hooper has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (7.0 per game) than he did last season (28.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards
22
Receiving Yards
