Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jayden ReedReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Vikings vs. Packers
Right now, Jayden Reed’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 53.5 (-114).
Pros
- The model projects the Packers as the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
- In this contest, Jayden Reed is projected by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 84th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.8 targets.
- Jayden Reed has been one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in a remarkable 71.3% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- Right now, the 7th-most sluggish paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Packers.
- As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Minnesota’s unit has been great this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards
62
Receiving Yards
