Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tanner Hudson from EV Insight

Tanner HudsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Tanner Hudson’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-110/-118).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 19.5 (-118) after it opened @ 20.5 (-114).

Pros

The Bengals will be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
At a -7-point disadvantage, the Bengals are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
In this week’s contest, Tanner Hudson is predicted by the model to rank in the 75th percentile among tight ends with 4.1 targets.
Tanner Hudson has totaled far more air yards this year (23.0 per game) than he did last year (10.0 per game).

Cons

Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 32.3 per game) this year.
The Bengals offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Tanner Hudson checks in as one of the weakest tight ends in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.12 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 16th percentile.
This year, the formidable Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed a puny 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 3rd-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards