Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-120/-109).

The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-120) after it opened @ 68.5 (-114).

Pros

The model projects Stefon Diggs to accrue 9.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
Stefon Diggs has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 30.2% this year, which puts him in the 95th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
In regards to air yards, Stefon Diggs grades out in the towering 94th percentile among WRs this year, averaging a whopping 105.0 per game.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year.
The Patriots pass defense has been gouged for the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.3%) versus wide receivers this year (67.3%).

Cons

This game’s line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are overwhelmingly favored by 14.5 points.
The predictive model expects the Bills to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to chug along at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.62 seconds per play accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
Stefon Diggs has accrued significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (75.0) this year than he did last year (90.0).
Stefon Diggs’s 66.7% Adjusted Completion% this season shows a significant reduction in his receiving ability over last season’s 72.7% figure.

Projection

THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards