Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Quentin JohnstonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Broncos vs. Chargers
Right now, Quentin Johnston’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 39.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Chargers may take to the air less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling with backup QB Easton Stick.
- The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
- The Chargers rank as the 8th-most pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 64.5% pass rate.
- While Quentin Johnston has garnered 10.7% of his offense’s targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much more involved in Los Angeles’s passing attack this week at 19.5%.
- This year, the poor Broncos defense has been gouged for the 4th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing WRs: a massive 9.20 yards.
Cons
- The projections expect the Chargers to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- Quentin Johnston profiles as one of the worst possession receivers in football, hauling in just 58.2% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 17th percentile among wideouts
- Quentin Johnston comes in as one of the least effective receivers in football, averaging a mere 6.97 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 17th percentile when it comes to wideouts
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards
40
Receiving Yards
