Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! Kudos to anyone who bet unders for Mikal Bridges and Cam Thomas Wednesday, and my condolences to anyone who bet their overs. I’m sure you’ve heard by now that the two Nets players were on the court for just the first quarter. This wasn’t widely broadcast news, but there were some mentions of it and several people who knew it was coming. I would if teams were more forthright about limiting players minutes when they plan to, but they are not required to do so and with the Nets on the second night of a back-to-back, not surprising.
No matter how you feel about it, the key take away is to practice patience when betting, beware betting teams in bad rest spots, and be sure to scour the internet for reports about any players who’s props you might want to bet. It is a messy time of year and injury report nonsense is as prevalent as it has ever been, so wait for announcements and bet with care. There’s certainly a few spots like that Thursday, so let’s breakdown the slate and see where there are bets to made now and possibly to be made later.
NBA Best Bets for Thursday
Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans
Current Line – Pelicans -8.5, 239.5
My Projection – Pelicans 122, Jazz 111
Key Injuries – None
This is the end of a five-game road trip for the Jazz and the third game in a row at home for New Orleans, which is a strong advantage for the Pelicans. New Orleans is also a much better team even though the Jazz have all their players. Unless Lauri Markkanen is able to outplay Brandon Ingram, Utah is going to lose the battle at every position. I’ll save you from reading me praise the Pelicans for the umpteenth time, but New Orleans is a great team when they have everyone. I make them 10-point favorites, which is an edge over the current spread, but there are two angles I like more than that. New Orleans is a much different team in the first half versus the second. The Pelicans are second in the NBA in first-half scoring margin and 26th in second-half scoring margin. They slow games down when they have a lead to limit their opportunities to get ahead of them. It’s helped them win games, but also allowed teams to steal the cover against the spread late in games. With all that in mind, I’m going to be the Pelicans -4.5 in the first half. Not only are they good in the first 24 minutes, the Utah Jazz are bad in the first two frames. They rank 26th in scoring margin in the first half this season. The other bet I like is under for the full game. I project 233 points and the market is giving us a chance to bet under 239.5. Now, this game is likely a blowout win and that generally means you should bet the over, but as I mentioned the Pelicans slow the pace when they’re winning. Even if the first half goes over, we’ll still have a shot to cash this bet with an ugly second half. I played under 239.5 and would play under any number 238 or higher.
Bets
New Orleans Pelicans -4.5 1H (-110, BetMGM)
Utah Jazz/New Orleans Pelicans Under 239.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets
Current Line – Nuggets -7.5, 224.5
My Projection – Nuggets 120, Grizzlies 111
Key Injuries – Aaron Gordon is out. Ja Morant is questionable.
The Grizzlies are 4-0 since Ja Morant’s return, but will he play here? Morant picked up an illness, which is particularly awful in the altitude of Denver. Memphis also plays Friday night in Los Angeles against the Clippers. I think there’s a good chance Ja misses the game, and if he doesn’t play, the Nuggets should be double-digit favorites, possibly as high as 12 points. My projection above assumes a healthy Morant, and I still make Denver a nine-point favorite. I generally don’t play a 1.5-point edge, but I think that’s understated given Morant is sick. It’s hard to quantify exactly what being sick is worth to the spread, but I feel fairly confident it’s worth at least a point, maybe two, which brings Nuggets -7.5 into a playable range even if Morant plays. It’s a great matchup for Denver even though they are missing one of their starters. There’s no one on Memphis that slow down Nikola Jokic and he might even be able to foul Jaren Jackson out of the game. Jamaal Murray is not back to his level from last postseason, but he’s playing better each game and should be the best guard on the floor tonight. I’m betting the Nuggets -7.5 now. If Morant plays, it’s a good bet. If Morant doesn’t play, it’s a great bet and I might even try to shoot the middle if the spread gets to 11.5 or higher. If we have -7.5 in our pocket, we can bet the same amount on +11.5 or +12.5 and win all of our bets if the Nuggets win by 8,9,10, or 11 points. That’s a pretty nice middle, so fingers crossed, and look in the #nba-plays channel of the FTNBets Discord for that bet if I make it.
Bet
Denver Nuggets -7.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors
Current Line – Warriors -3.5, 228.5
My Projection – Warriors 118, Heat 111
Key Injuries – Draymond Green is out. Caleb Martin and Josh Richardson are doubtful. Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson and Kyle Lowry are questionable.
Look at all those names missing for Miami. For the second season in a row, they have been devastated by injuries to several players for most of the season. Every night it’s a different cast of characters, which never get enough time to play together to gel. They are forced to give big minutes to guys who were meant to play sparingly if at all. They’ve managed to still win games, but Thursday is going to be rough. This is the first game of a daunting five-game West Coast road trip. They face a Warriors team that looks much better with their new starting lineup. Golden State had started Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney for years, and for good reason given their success. With Green suspended, Steve Kerr has been forced to change the rotation and found success doing it. Brandin Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga are in the starting five, and Wiggins has moved to the bench. It’s given their first five more athleticism and made their second unit more talented. They’ve won five of their last six games and look rejuvenated. I make them seven point favorites and love this matchup for them, especially if Jimmy Butler is out. Curry will not face a guard that can defend well let alone stop Curry. The Warriors second unit should win a lot of minutes against the very thin roster of the Heat. I like this spot quite a bit for Golden State and will lay the 3.5 points. It’s a great spot and a great matchup for the Warriors.
Bet
Golden State Warriors -3.5 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting, and why I’m not betting them.
Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics -17.5, 232.5
Could this be the night the Pistons win?! No, it will not be here, and, frankly, all the asking about it every game is getting to be a bit much. I think Detroit will win another game at some point, but I’m done focusing on it. They are deservedly huge underdogs even though Jaylen Brown is out for the Celtics. I make it Boston -18 (the biggest favorite my model has ever projected), and I have the total at 228. I’ve mentioned it before, but my model struggles with outlier games like this where the spread is historically large. It’s hard to have enough data about games like this to model it well for me. As for the total, I generally don’t bet unders in blowout games. The fourth quarters end up being much different than the previous three. Bench players enter the game and push the pace to get as many chances as possible to show their skill in their opportunity to finally play. This looks like a great game to skip, so no bets.
Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls +1.5, 239
I don’t have a good handle on these two teams at the moment. Indiana had played poorly until suddenly looking like their early-season selves against the Houston Rockets. The ball was flowing and three pointers were flying against a team that had been good at slowing down their opponents. The Bulls success without Zach LaVine has been well noted and this is fifth game in a row at home, which always helps. I was eyeing a play on Chicago, but I’m not sure what to expect from Indiana and my projections agree with the current prices. I should be a fun game, but I just don’t see anything worthy of a wager.
Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves -12, 228.5
Dallas played Wednesday night, which means we don’t have an official injury report yet and don’t know if Luka Doncic is going to play. He’s been great in the second night of back-to-backs this year, but there’s a chance he rests here, and the current spread is telling us that is more likely than not. If Luka plays, Mavericks +12 and over 228.5 would be great bets, but those lines will move sharply if it’s announced that he is playing. I considered the Timberwolves team total over, but it’s 120.5 and I project them for 120 so no bets there. This is also another game where my projections like the under, but it’s a potential blowout so I’m going to pass on that and any other bets.
San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers -4.5, 235.5
This is the first of a two-game series between these teams over two nights. So, that means we get to ask ourselves twice whether we want to lay points with the terrible Trail Blazers or whether we want to take less than 10 points with a team that is not trying to win games. Portland has been playing better and shows signs of being a functional NBA team, but I’m not laying more than a few points with them even against a bad team at home. The Spurs continue to love all the cover the Pistons are running for them, because they have lost 23 of their last 24 games. My projections make it Portland -3, with a total of 233. Do with that what you will, but I’m not betting this game here or Friday.
Charlotte Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers -12, 226
I may change “Not For Noops” to “Don’t Bet the Lakers Yet,” because it feels like the Lakers are in this section every day. The reason for that is LeBron James and Anthony Davis are listed as questionable every day, and we can’t place a wager until we know if one or both is playing or not. If both are in, this spread makes sense to me. The Hornets seemed to be playing decent basketball without LaMelo Ball, but that time has passed and they’ve been getting crushed for about 2 weeks now. I will probably play a Hornets team total under if both stars play for LA, but I can’t bet it now. I’ll put then in the FTNBets Discord once we know what’s happening with LeBron and AD.
