Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Nico CollinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Texans vs. Titans
Right now, Nico Collins’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-110).
Pros
- At the present time, the 4th-fastest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Houston Texans.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The model projects Nico Collins to accrue 8.6 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 91st percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- Nico Collins has put up a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (74.0) this year than he did last year (48.0).
- The Titans pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (71.1%) to WRs this year (71.1%).
Cons
- The Texans are a 5.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- The Titans pass defense has excelled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.27 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
88
Receiving Yards
88
Receiving Yards
