Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Colts vs. Raiders
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 72.5 (-110) after it opened @ 79.5 (-110).
Pros
- Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Colts are forecasted by the model to run 66.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a massive 60.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Michael Pittman has totaled a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (76.0) this season than he did last season (61.0).
- The Raiders pass defense has been gouged for the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (69%) versus wideouts this year (69.0%).
Cons
- A rushing game script is suggested by the Colts being a 3.5-point favorite this week.
- As it relates to defensive ends rushing the passer, Las Vegas’s unit has been phenomenal this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
89
Receiving Yards
89
Receiving Yards
