Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Marquise Brown from EV Insight

Marquise BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, Marquise Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-115) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).

Pros

The Arizona Cardinals will be forced to utilize backup QB David Blough this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Cardinals are a big 7.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 9th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.1 plays per game.

Cons

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
Marquise Brown has been much more involved in his team’s offense this season, playing on 91.7% of snaps compared to just 79.8% last season.
Marquise Brown has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the league, averaging a measly 7.26 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 13th percentile among WRs
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards