WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Richie JamesReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Giants vs. Colts
Right now, Richie James’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 37.5 (-115) after it opened @ 39.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Giants to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Richie James has been among the most reliable receivers in football, hauling in a terrific 83.6% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has not been good when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.97 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-most in the league.
- The New York Giants have incorporated play action on 28.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
- The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- The Giants are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
- The New York Giants O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
- Richie James has been among the worst WRs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.88 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 19th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
