Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Kylen GransonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Colts vs. Raiders
Right now, Kylen Granson’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-130/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 15.5 (-130) after it opened @ 15.5 (-120).
Pros
- Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Colts are forecasted by the model to run 66.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a massive 60.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Kylen Granson has accumulated far more air yards this season (26.0 per game) than he did last season (18.0 per game).
- This year, the shaky Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has given up a colossal 77.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 7th-highest rate in the league.
Cons
- A rushing game script is suggested by the Colts being a 3.5-point favorite this week.
- Kylen Granson’s 66.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this season shows a noteworthy diminishment in his receiving prowess over last season’s 77.7% rate.
- As it relates to defensive ends rushing the passer, Las Vegas’s unit has been phenomenal this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
