NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Bears vs. Falcons
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 34.5 (-130) after it opened @ 34.5 (-115).
Pros
- At the moment, the 6th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Falcons.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
- This week, Kyle Pitts is projected by the predictive model to rank in the 84th percentile among TEs with 5.4 targets.
- The Falcons offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- Kyle Pitts checks in as one of the best pass-game tight ends this year, averaging an excellent 39.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.
Cons
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 49.1% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- After accumulating 77.0 air yards per game last year, Kyle Pitts has fallen off this year, now averaging 61.0 per game.
- Kyle Pitts’s 45.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 63.1.
- Kyle Pitts’s 2.60 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season illustrates a material diminishment in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season’s 6.6% figure.
- The Chicago Bears pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus tight ends this year, surrendering 6.39 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards
33
Receiving Yards
