Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kyle Pitts from EV Insight

Kyle PittsReceiving Yards

Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-130/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 34.5 (-130) after it opened @ 34.5 (-115).

Pros

At the moment, the 6th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Falcons.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
This week, Kyle Pitts is projected by the predictive model to rank in the 84th percentile among TEs with 5.4 targets.
The Falcons offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Kyle Pitts checks in as one of the best pass-game tight ends this year, averaging an excellent 39.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.

Cons

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 49.1% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
After accumulating 77.0 air yards per game last year, Kyle Pitts has fallen off this year, now averaging 61.0 per game.
Kyle Pitts’s 45.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 63.1.
Kyle Pitts’s 2.60 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season illustrates a material diminishment in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season’s 6.6% figure.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus tight ends this year, surrendering 6.39 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards