Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Vikings vs. Packers
Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-118/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-118) after it opened @ 78.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings may take to the air less in this contest (and call more carries) given that they be forced to start backup quarterback Jaren Hall.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to pass on 61.8% of their plays: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
- The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
- The projections expect Justin Jefferson to garner 10.9 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to WRs.
- Justin Jefferson has notched quite a few more air yards this year (139.0 per game) than he did last year (106.0 per game).
Cons
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to have only 127.9 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
- Opposing offenses teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Packers, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 33.9 per game) this year.
- Justin Jefferson’s 66.5% Adjusted Catch Rate this season conveys a substantial diminishment in his receiving prowess over last season’s 72.0% figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
111
Receiving Yards
111
Receiving Yards
