Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Jakobi MeyersReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Patriots vs. Dolphins
Right now, Jakobi Meyers’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-139/+102).
The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-139) after it opened @ 51.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.4% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Jakobi Meyers to total 8.0 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among wideouts.
- Jakobi Meyers has been among the best pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging an impressive 60.0 yards per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
Cons
- The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has shown strong efficiency against WRs this year, giving up 7.69 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in the league.
- The New England Patriots O-line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards
62
Receiving Yards
