Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Patriots vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 73.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will be forced to use backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
- Tyreek Hill has posted significantly more receiving yards per game (99.0) this season than he did last season (82.0).
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins have run the least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 52.9 plays per game.
- The New England Patriots pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.9%) versus WRs this year (63.9%).
- The New England Patriots pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.63 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the league.
- The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line has afforded their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
91
Receiving Yards
91
Receiving Yards
