Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 73.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).

Pros

The Miami Dolphins will be forced to use backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
Tyreek Hill has posted significantly more receiving yards per game (99.0) this season than he did last season (82.0).

Cons

The Miami Dolphins have run the least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 52.9 plays per game.
The New England Patriots pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.9%) versus WRs this year (63.9%).
The New England Patriots pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.63 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the league.
The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has afforded their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
91
Receiving Yards