Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
D’Andre SwiftRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Lions vs. Bears
Right now, D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-120) after it opened @ 38.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
- D’Andre Swift’s rushing efficiency has gotten a boost this season, compiling 5.48 yards-per-carry compared to just 3.76 mark last season.
- Opposing offenses have run for the 3rd-most yards in the NFL (151 per game) vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year.
- The Chicago Bears defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-worst DT corps in the league this year in regard to run defense.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Lions to run the 7th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- D’Andre Swift has been a much smaller piece of his offense’s run game this season (25.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (50.3%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Rushing Yards
38
Rushing Yards
