Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jake Ferguson from EV Insight

Jake FergusonReceiving Yards

Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-110).

Pros

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 60.9% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest clip among all teams this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 130.7 total plays called: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.
The Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 60.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Jake Ferguson’s 74.6% Route Participation Rate this year marks a meaningful improvement in his passing attack utilization over last year’s 18.3% mark.

Cons

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on running than their standard game plan.
Jake Ferguson’s 73.2% Adjusted Catch% this season illustrates a noteworthy regression in his receiving ability over last season’s 84.5% figure.
This year, the imposing Detroit Lions defense has surrendered a puny 68.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards