NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Jake FergusonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Cowboys vs. Lions
Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-110).
Pros
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 60.9% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest clip among all teams this week.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have 130.7 total plays called: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.
- The Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 60.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Jake Ferguson’s 74.6% Route Participation Rate this year marks a meaningful improvement in his passing attack utilization over last year’s 18.3% mark.
Cons
- With a 4.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on running than their standard game plan.
- Jake Ferguson’s 73.2% Adjusted Catch% this season illustrates a noteworthy regression in his receiving ability over last season’s 84.5% figure.
- This year, the imposing Detroit Lions defense has surrendered a puny 68.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards
56
Receiving Yards
