Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Isaiah Likely from EV Insight

Isaiah LikelyReceiving Yards

Right now, Isaiah Likely’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 42.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-114).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Ravens are projected by the predictive model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast Isaiah Likely to accumulate 5.3 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Our trusted projections expect Isaiah Likely to be a much bigger part of his offense’s air attack in this contest (17.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.8% in games he has played).
Isaiah Likely’s receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 65.4% to 82.0%.
This year, the shaky Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed a colossal 76.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 10th-largest rate in football.

Cons

A rushing game script is indicated by the Ravens being a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest.
The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the 8th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Isaiah Likely has accrued quite a few less air yards this year (13.0 per game) than he did last year (26.0 per game).
The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards