Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight

Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-110).

Pros

The Jets will be starting backup QB Trevor Siemian in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Jets being a huge -7-point underdog in this week’s game.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 61.3% of their downs: the 7th-greatest clip on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect the Jets to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.9 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Garrett Wilson has been less involved as a potential target this year (97.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (86.4%).

Cons

Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
When talking about pass protection (and the influence it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the New York Jets profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
Garrett Wilson checks in as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league, catching a measly 59.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 23rd percentile among WRs
Garrett Wilson’s pass-game effectiveness has worsened this season, accumulating a measly 6.57 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.63 mark last season.
With a lackluster 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson ranks as one of the top WRs in the NFL in football in picking up extra yardage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards