Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Gerald EverettReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Broncos vs. Chargers
Right now, Gerald Everett’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-131) after it opened @ 40.5 (-119).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Chargers may take to the air less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling with backup QB Easton Stick.
- The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
- The Chargers rank as the 8th-most pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 64.5% pass rate.
- In this game, Gerald Everett is projected by the model to finish in the 95th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 7.3 targets.
- This year, the anemic Broncos defense has been gouged for a whopping 64.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 2nd-worst in the NFL.
Cons
- The projections expect the Chargers to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- After averaging 31.0 air yards per game last year, Gerald Everett has been a disappointment this year, now pacing 19.0 per game.
- Gerald Everett comes in as one of the least effective pass-catchers in the league among TEs, averaging just 6.65 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 24th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards
45
Receiving Yards
