Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DeAndre HopkinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Texans vs. Titans
Right now, DeAndre Hopkins’s receiving yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 62.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-110).
Pros
- At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on passing than their normal approach.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The leading projections forecast DeAndre Hopkins to accumulate 9.8 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
- After accumulating 111.0 air yards per game last season, DeAndre Hopkins has undergone big improvement this season, now pacing 124.0 per game.
- The Houston Texans defense has given up the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (177.0) to wideouts this year.
Cons
- Right now, the 3rd-least pass-centric team in the NFL (56.5% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Tennessee Titans.
- Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Titans are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 64.0 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-fewest on the slate this week.
- The 4th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Titans this year (a measly 55.2 per game on average).
- When talking about protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Titans profiles as the 8th-worst in the league this year.
- DeAndre Hopkins’s 61.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season shows an impressive reduction in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 82.0 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards
78
Receiving Yards
