Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Davante Adams from EV Insight

Davante AdamsReceiving Yards

Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (+108/-139).

The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (+108) after it opened @ 65.5 (-113).

Pros

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Raiders are underdogs this week, implying more of a reliance on passing than their typical approach.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
Our trusted projections expect Davante Adams to accumulate 11.6 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Davante Adams’s 83.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 75.0.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.

Cons

Right now, the 7th-least pass-heavy team in football (57.3% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Las Vegas Raiders.
With regard to a defense’s influence on pace, at 28.57 seconds per snap, our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders as the 4th-slowest in the league (context-neutralized) right now.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 32.7 per game) this year.
After averaging 124.0 air yards per game last year, Davante Adams has seen a big downtick this year, now sitting at 116.0 per game.
Davante Adams’s 68.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year illustrates a significant reduction in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 89.0 rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
90
Receiving Yards