NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Bills vs. Patriots
Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 26.5 (-110) after it opened @ 23.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast Dalton Kincaid to garner 4.4 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
- Dalton Kincaid has been a key part of his team’s pass game, earning a Target Share of 16.9% this year, which puts him in the 88th percentile among TEs.
- Dalton Kincaid has accumulated a staggering 29.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile when it comes to TEs.
- As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year.
- With a fantastic 37.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (82nd percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid rates as one of the best tight ends in the pass game in football.
Cons
- This game’s line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are overwhelmingly favored by 14.5 points.
- The predictive model expects the Bills to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast this game to chug along at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.62 seconds per play accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- This year, the tough New England Patriots defense has given up the least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing tight ends: a measly 6.4 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
