Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dalton Kincaid from EV Insight

Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards

Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 26.5 (-110) after it opened @ 23.5 (-110).

Pros

The leading projections forecast Dalton Kincaid to garner 4.4 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
Dalton Kincaid has been a key part of his team’s pass game, earning a Target Share of 16.9% this year, which puts him in the 88th percentile among TEs.
Dalton Kincaid has accumulated a staggering 29.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile when it comes to TEs.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year.
With a fantastic 37.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (82nd percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid rates as one of the best tight ends in the pass game in football.

Cons

This game’s line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are overwhelmingly favored by 14.5 points.
The predictive model expects the Bills to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to chug along at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.62 seconds per play accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
This year, the tough New England Patriots defense has given up the least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing tight ends: a measly 6.4 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards