NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Taylor HeinickePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Bears vs. Falcons
Right now, Taylor Heinicke’s passing yards prop is set at 204.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 204.5 (-110) after it opened @ 200.5 (-110).
Pros
- At the moment, the 6th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Falcons.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
- The Falcons offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 8th-most adjusted yards in the league (264.0 per game) versus the Bears defense this year.
- This year, the porous Chicago Bears defense has surrendered a whopping 72.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-highest rate in football.
Cons
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 49.1% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- The model projects Taylor Heinicke to attempt 29.8 passes this week, on average: the 5th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
- Taylor Heinicke’s 161.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows a noteworthy diminishment in his throwing proficiency over last season’s 202.0 figure.
- Taylor Heinicke’s throwing accuracy has worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 63.0% to 55.2%.
- Taylor Heinicke’s 6.00 adjusted yards-per-target this year signifies an impressive diminishment in his throwing efficiency over last year’s 7.0% mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
170
Passing Yards
170
Passing Yards
