Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Malik WillisPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Titans vs. Cowboys
Right now, Malik Willis’s passing yards prop is set at 107.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 107.5 (-110) after it opened @ 106.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 10th-most in football.
- The Dallas Cowboys defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.37 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-most in the NFL.
- The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 9th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 52.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 52.8 plays per game.
- The Tennessee Titans O-line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- The Dallas Cowboys linebackers rank as the 6th-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Tennessee Titans offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
183
Passing Yards
183
Passing Yards
