Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NBA has a decent six-game slate of games Thursday. Normally, Thursdays are just two or three games, but with the weekend day off they are trying to make up for that lost time.
We only had one edge in our FTNBets NBA Model for the day that was over 10%. It is the one total bet listed below. We had a lot of edges in the FTNBets Player Prop Model, and here are my two favorites.
Best NBA Total Bet Today
Charlotte Hornets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Under 239
You can find a few books at 238.5 for -110 on this game, but nothing better than the under 239 at -110 on FanDuel. Charlotte ranks dead last for points scored per 100 possessions. OKC is not much better at 23rd. Charlotte’s defense has been non-existent in 2022, but OKC has been solid on that end of the floor. Yes, the pace should be elevated here, but you are talking about two teams that are inefficient offensively and 239 is a massive number. If OKC was also bad defensively, I would be less inclined to take an under, but they are an above average defensive team that should limit Charlotte’s ceiling.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Evan Mobley Under 14.5 Points
Evan Mobley was playing a bigger role when the frontcourt had some injury issues, but everyone is healthy now. He’s still seeing 30-plus minutes a night, but the 37- to 42-minute games seem to be a thing of the past. Those games also took a toll on Mobley, as his knee was acting up and made him questionable a few nights ago. That is when we really saw the minutes dip. Kevin Love, Cedi Osman, Robin Lopez and Isaac Okoro are all guys that can play some minutes at the forward spot. Jarrett Allen being back eats up a lot of minutes at center. Mobley is definitely still going to be on the floor a lot, but with other options he does not need to play the high 30s minutes he was seeing. That has capped his ceiling a bit in all stat categories.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Ivica Zubac Under 10.5 Rebounds
This is not a knock on Ivica Zubac‘s rebounding potential, but more a credit to the Celtics. They give up one of the lowest offensive rebound percentages to their opponents. My other concern here is that the Celtics can play with various different lineup combinations, including a small ball type lineup that would put Jayson Tatum at the 4 and Al Horford at the 5 to create a mismatch on the offensive end with Zubac. It could lead to him seeing fewer minutes, and that would cap the rebound upside.
