Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Lamar Jackson

Lamar JacksonPassing Yards

Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 230.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Ravens are projected by the predictive model to call 66.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Lamar Jackson has passed for significantly more adjusted yards per game (221.0) this year than he did last year (191.0).
Lamar Jackson’s 67.2% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a material gain in his passing accuracy over last year’s 62.9% rate.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-highest rate in the league vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year (72.9% Adjusted Completion%).

Cons

A rushing game script is indicated by the Ravens being a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest.
The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the 8th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Dolphins defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.03 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in football.
The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
218
Passing Yards