NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Bills vs. Patriots
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 240.5 yards (-133/-103).
The public has bet the OVER up to 240.5 (-133) after it opened @ 238.5 (-119).
Pros
- As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year.
- With a fantastic rate of 263.0 adjusted passing yards per game (80th percentile), Josh Allen has been as one of the top passers in the NFL this year.
- Josh Allen’s passing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 64.2% to 67.7%.
- Josh Allen grades out as one of the best per-play passers in the NFL this year, averaging an excellent 7.71 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the 86th percentile.
- The Patriots safeties grade out as the 8th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- This game’s line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are overwhelmingly favored by 14.5 points.
- The predictive model expects the Bills to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast this game to chug along at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.62 seconds per play accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast Josh Allen to throw 31.5 passes in this contest, on balance: the 9th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
Projection
THE BLITZ
234
Passing Yards
234
Passing Yards
