Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Bengals vs. Bills
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 263.5 yards (-137/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 263.5 (-137) after it opened @ 241.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
- Josh Allen has been among the top passers in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 274.0 yards per game while ranking in the 88th percentile.
- Josh Allen has been among the most efficient passers in the league this year, averaging a terrific 7.66 yards-per-target while checking in at the 78th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 64.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 38.9 passes in this game, on average: the least of all QBs.
- The Buffalo Bills O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.66 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
295
Passing Yards
295
Passing Yards
