Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Josh Allen from EV Insight

Josh AllenPassing Yards

Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 263.5 yards (-137/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 263.5 (-137) after it opened @ 241.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
Josh Allen has been among the top passers in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 274.0 yards per game while ranking in the 88th percentile.
Josh Allen has been among the most efficient passers in the league this year, averaging a terrific 7.66 yards-per-target while checking in at the 78th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 64.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 38.9 passes in this game, on average: the least of all QBs.
The Buffalo Bills O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.66 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
295
Passing Yards