Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jordan LovePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Vikings vs. Packers
Right now, Jordan Love’s passing yards prop is set at 234.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 234.5 (-110) after it opened @ 237.5 (-114).
Pros
- The model projects the Packers as the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
- The model projects Jordan Love to throw 38.4 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the most out of all QBs.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the highest level in football against the Vikings defense this year (74.6% Adjusted Completion%).
Cons
- Right now, the 7th-most sluggish paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Packers.
- As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Minnesota’s unit has been great this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
274
Passing Yards
274
Passing Yards
